Antecedents to the AfCFTA: Lessons from Kenya’s Export Survival under COMESA


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Socrates M. K., Türkcan K., Moyi E.

in: Key Issues in Regional Integration IX:Harnessing intra-COMESA trade through the interface with African Continental Free Trade Area, Dr Christopher Onyango, Editor, COMESA, Lusaka, pp.50-72, 2021

  • Publication Type: Book Chapter / Chapter Research Book
  • Publication Date: 2021
  • Publisher: COMESA
  • City: Lusaka
  • Page Numbers: pp.50-72
  • Editors: Dr Christopher Onyango, Editor
  • Akdeniz University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

Policy discourse on intra-African trade is currently dominated by discussions on the potential

benefits of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). This study contributes to this

discussion by drawing lessons for the AfCFTA from Kenya’s export survival under COMESA and

other Economic Integration Agreements (EIAs) in Africa. The study estimated a probit model

using monthly firm-product-destination customs transaction data for the period January 2006

to December 2017, in 52 African countries and 20 COMESA countries.

The study found that about 70 percent of export firms survive beyond the 1st month of exporting

to COMESA countries. Half of the exporting firms survive beyond the 12th month and less than

10 percent live beyond the 108th month. Membership in Economic Integration Arrangements

enhances export survival in African countries. The study recommends that countries complete

the pending policy issues (state aid, public procurement, environmental laws and labour market

regulations) both at the AfCFTA and COMESA to maximise on the firms’export survival; and

improve trade facilitation policies and programmes since high cost of importing as well as

distance reduce export survival.