Research Information System
in: Key Issues in Regional Integration IX:Harnessing intra-COMESA trade through the interface with African Continental Free Trade Area, Dr Christopher Onyango, Editor, COMESA, Lusaka, pp.50-72, 2021
Policy discourse on intra-African trade is currently dominated by discussions on the potential
benefits of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). This study contributes to this
discussion by drawing lessons for the AfCFTA from Kenya’s export survival under COMESA and
other Economic Integration Agreements (EIAs) in Africa. The study estimated a probit model
using monthly firm-product-destination customs transaction data for the period January 2006
to December 2017, in 52 African countries and 20 COMESA countries.
The study found that about 70 percent of export firms survive beyond the 1st month of exporting
to COMESA countries. Half of the exporting firms survive beyond the 12th month and less than
10 percent live beyond the 108th month. Membership in Economic Integration Arrangements
enhances export survival in African countries. The study recommends that countries complete
the pending policy issues (state aid, public procurement, environmental laws and labour market
regulations) both at the AfCFTA and COMESA to maximise on the firms’export survival; and
improve trade facilitation policies and programmes since high cost of importing as well as
distance reduce export survival.