International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference (SGEM2016), Albena, Bulgaria, 28 June - 07 July 2016, vol.1, no.3, pp.483-490
Seismic hazard, also known as earthquake hazard, is anything associated with an earthquake that may affect people and environment, including surface faulting, ground shaking, landslide, liquefaction etc. The strongest earthquakes expected to strike are shown in Global Seismic Hazard Map (GSHM). Two main earthquake zones are located in GSHM namely; Circum-Pacific Seismic Belt and Alpine-Himalayan Orogenic Belt. Turkey is situated in Alpine-Himalayan Orogenic Belt and has an earthquake risk from moderate to very high according to the GSHM. Antalya is one of the major cities of Turkey and nearly millions of tourists are visiting the city every year. The city is generally located in the second degree earthquake zone of The Seismic Hazard Map of Turkey. Western part of the city is in the first degree zone, while expanding to the east, three and four degree zones are also seen. Calcareous rocks which could not resist to abrasion and easily soluble are dominant lithology and outcropping widely in the vicinity defined as karstic terrain and characterized by surface collapse and small or large sized dissolution voids on ground surface. Accordingly, the seismic hazard analysis of Antalya become important because of the seismicity of the city and the weak soil and rock conditions. In this study, seismic hazard parameters of Antalya were estimated by using stochastic and deterministic methods. Parameter “a” was found in the range of 4.54 and 6.54, and parameter “b” in the range of 0.65 and 0.97 for the zones around Antalya. For a 250 km radius circle centered in Antalya city center, probability of occurrence of an earthquake with magnitude 5 or more is 99 % in 50 years. By applying attenuation relationships, the horizontal ground acceleration is estimated from 0.004g to 0.076g. Study involves the earthquakes that have occurred in the last century.
Keywords: Deterministic Seismic Hazard, Attenuation, Seismicity, Karstic Terrain, Antalya