The Impact of Syrian Refugees on Turkish Economy: A Smilation Approach

Mahia R., Dea Acre R., KOÇ A. A., BÖLÜK G.

TURKISH STUDIES, vol.21, no.5, pp.661-683, 2020 (SSCI)

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 21 Issue: 5
  • Publication Date: 2020
  • Journal Name: TURKISH STUDIES
  • Journal Indexes: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, IBZ Online, International Bibliography of Social Sciences, Historical Abstracts, Index Islamicus, MLA - Modern Language Association Database, Political Science Complete, Public Affairs Index, Sociological abstracts, Worldwide Political Science Abstracts
  • Page Numbers: pp.661-683
  • Akdeniz University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

This article presents the results of a simulation on the short-, medium- and longterm
aggregated economic contribution of Syrian refugees on the Turkish
economy. The simulation is focused on two sources of impact: refugees’ access
to the Turkish labor market and the investment flow generated by Syrians inside
the country. An input–output approach is used to compute economic effects
considering the intersectoral linkages of the Turkish economy, thereby expanding
the focus of a classic impact study. Our results show a positive economic impact
of Syrian refugees of around 2 percent of GDP in the short term and 4 percent in
the long term. Syrian immigration in Turkey is becoming a factor of economic
dynamism that not only benefits the Syrian community itself but also the Turkish
host communities. The direct and indirect contribution in terms of production
and demand is very relevant and, properly channeled and promoted, can
become a relative advantage for the country and not a burden of care.