Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 2026 (SSCI, Scopus)
This study investigates long-term relationships among tourism, energy use, and environmental pressure in the Turkic States (TDT) from 2001 to 2024 using second-generation panel methods. Unit root and cointegration tests reveal a stable long-run association among CO₂ emissions, energy consumption, economic activity, and tourism indicators. The study introduces a theoretical framework showing that tourism’s effect on carbon intensity depends on destinations’ energy infrastructure and service efficiency, conceptualized through decoupling–divergence dynamics. AMG estimates indicate that energy consumption is the primary driver of emissions (β = 0.2036), while international tourist arrivals slightly reduce carbon intensity (β = −0.0160). Country-level heterogeneity appears in Türkiye, where arrivals increase emissions (β = 0.0573). CCEMG findings reinforce these results, and Dumitrescu–Hurlin tests show no short-term causality from tourism to environmental degradation. Overall, emission reduction in the TDT region relies mainly on energy transition, with tourism’s environmental effects shaped by national structures.