Global sunflower oil trade under COVID-19 and the Russia–Ukraine conflict: a complex network analysis of food system resilience and sustainable finance dynamics


Boz F., Yilmaz B., Özekicioğlu H., Topuz H., Ünlü U.

FRONTIERS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE, cilt.14, ss.1-14, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 14
  • Basım Tarihi: 2026
  • Doi Numarası: 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1757181
  • Dergi Adı: FRONTIERS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Scopus, Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), BIOSIS, INSPEC, Directory of Open Access Journals
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.1-14
  • Akdeniz Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

This study investigates how recent global crises have reshaped the sunflower oil
trade network and what these shifts mean for the environmental sustainability and
financial resilience of agri-food systems. Focusing on the COVID-19 pandemic
and the Russia–Ukraine conflict, we analyze export flows from 2019 to 2022 using
complex network techniques to identify changes in structural connectivity,
core–periphery patterns and country-level influence. The findings show that
Ukraine and India remained the most central actors in the network throughout
the period, while 2022 marked a significant reorganization: Türkiye and Russia
rose in prominence following the Grain Corridor initiative, signaling the
emergence of alternative regional trade pathways. Despite these geopolitical
shocks, the network preserved a dense and highly interconnected structure,
revealing persistent interdependence among major producers and import-
dependent economies. However, several key trade relationships weakened or
shifted, illustrating the sensitivity of global edible-oil supply chains to geopolitical
disruptions. These dynamics are closely linked to climate-sensitive agricultural
systems, with implications for land-use pressures, food security risks, and the
vulnerability of environmentally exposed importing countries. The study further
highlights how sustainable finance mechanisms—including risk-responsive
investment strategies and resilience-oriented funding models—can support the
stability of edible-oil supply chains by addressing the concentration, dependency
and reconfiguration patterns identified in the trade network under rising climate
and geopolitical uncertainty. Network results were validated through cross-year
structural consistency checks, ensuring methodological robustness. Overall, the
analysis provides timely evidence on the reconfiguration of sunflower oil trade
and offers insights relevant to SDG2 (Zero Hunger) and SDG13 (Climate Action),
contributing to efforts to build more resilient and environmentally sustainable
food systems.