Global uncertainty and the effectiveness of currency depreciation on tourism demand in G20 economies
Discover Sustainability, cilt.7, sa.1, 2026 (ESCI, Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 7 Sayı: 1
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.1007/s43621-026-03428-x
- Dergi Adı: Discover Sustainability
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI), Scopus, Geobase, Directory of Open Access Journals
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Emerging versus advanced economies, Exchange rate competitiveness, Global uncertainty, Institutional resilience, Tourism demand
- Akdeniz Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
This study examines how exchange rates and global uncertainty interact to shape international tourism demand across G20 economies. Using annual data from 2001 to 2023, we apply a PMG-ARDL framework, complemented by heterogeneity and panel quantile regressions, to identify long-run relationships and distribution-specific responses. The results show that per capita income is the dominant long-run driver of tourism demand, while the positive effects of currency depreciation weaken substantially under elevated uncertainty. Moreover, we document a systematic divergence between advanced and emerging destinations: advanced economies preserve their exchange-rate advantages during uncertain periods, whereas emerging markets experience an erosion of price competitiveness. These findings suggest that exchange-rate-based strategies alone are insufficient to sustain tourism demand in volatile environments without macroeconomic stability and institutional resilience.