Determination of the Future Meteorological Formations and Analyzing the Hydrologic Data at Buffalo NY USA


AKINER M. E.

THE INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON SCIENCE, ECOLOGY AND TECHNOLOGY I (ICONSETE’2015 – VIENNA), VİYANA, Austria, 25 - 28 August 2015, pp.476-492

  • Publication Type: Conference Paper / Full Text
  • City: VİYANA
  • Country: Austria
  • Page Numbers: pp.476-492
  • Akdeniz University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

An annual series of maximum daily rainfall extending through 1960–2004, i.e., 45 years, was extracted from the web archives of Environmental Satellite, Data, & Information Service (NESDIS) for Buffalo, NY USA. The statistical analysis of this long record can be useful for investigating more generalized issues regarding the adequacy of extreme value distributions for extreme rainfall analysis and the effect of sample size on design rainfall inferences. Return Period maximum precipitation values were calculated by Extreme Value Type I (EV1) analyses. Results show that large return periods must be considered as a warning for droughts and flood risk. Markov chain process was also used to determine future meteorological formations. Simple check has been done by using 40 years period data. According to the results of randomly checked precipitation data, Markov Chain model shows 78 percent of success.