Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, cilt.138, sa.3, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)
Hydrological changes caused by climate change and anthropogenic pressures in basins in the Mediterranean climate zone pose a critical threat to water security. This study uses a multi-scale, integrated approach to assess meteorological and hydrological drought trends in the Göksu River Basin (Mersin), one of Türkiye’s important agricultural basins with a high drought risk. In the study, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) were calculated using long-term monthly precipitation and runoff data for the period 1977–2014; trends were quantified using linear regression analysis, and spatial distributions were mapped using the Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) method. The research clearly indicates a prolonged, statistically significant decrease in streamflow, indicating an increase in hydrological drought severity. According to the results of both innovative (Innovative Trend Analysis-ITA) and classical (Mann–Kendall -MK and Spearman Rho-SR) trend methods, while an increasing trend is observed in other types of droughts, no statistically significant trend is observed in meteorological drought in the basin. The system-wide decline in the hydrological system is especially noticeable at the Karahacılı streamflow gauging station, where flow has decreased by 60.42 m3/s. The SPI and SDI analyses identify 2005, 2008, and 2013 as the driest years, with hydrological droughts lagging behind meteorological droughts by 1–2 years. The lag highlights disproportionate effects from human activities, including land-use changes, water abstraction, and climate change, in the basin. These findings require water resources management policies in the Mediterranean basin to tackle human activities and the combined pressures of climate change and human activities on water resources.