Unveiling the sectoral impact of renewable energy on growth in Europe: A threshold and machine learning approach
Renewable Energy, cilt.277, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 277
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.renene.2026.126482
- Dergi Adı: Renewable Energy
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Compendex, Environment Index, Geobase, Greenfile, Index Islamicus, INSPEC, Public Affairs Index, Academic Search Ultimate (EBSCO)
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Decarbonized pathways, Europe, Machine learning, Purpose-specific energy-growth nexus, Renewable energy consumption, Threshold effects
- Akdeniz Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
Our paper uncovers a hidden structure in the renewable energy-growth nexus of the European countries by showing that “why renewable energy is consumed” matters as much as “how much”. Using a dynamic panel threshold model and complementary machine learning techniques for 27 European countries from 2004 to 2024, we demonstrate that renewable energy is associated with economic growth in fundamentally different ways across sectors. Four distinct turning points emerge: transportation (9.611%), electricity generation (13.615%), overall renewable energy consumption (14.152%), and heating and cooling (27.601%). Above these thresholds, transportation, renewable electricity, heating and cooling, and total renewable use generate increasing returns to GDP, with heating and cooling exerting the strongest effect, each 1% rise in renewable penetration corresponds to a 0.044% increase in GDP. In sharp contrast, transportation displays diminishing returns: below its threshold, a 1% increase is associated with a 0.032% increase in GDP, but the effect weakens once the threshold is exceeded. Machine learning results (SHAP and PDP) corroborate these non-linear patterns, revealing heterogeneous and purpose-specific marginal effects across the renewable energy landscape. Taken together, the findings show that Europe's energy transition is not a uniform growth engine but a constellation of sectoral regimes, each with its own economic leverage point.