Trend Assessment of Drought Periods in the Elmalı District of Antalya

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Moray S., Kaman H.

Türk Tarım - Gıda Bilim ve Teknoloji dergisi, cilt.14, sa.3, ss.759-766, 2026 (TRDizin)

Özet

This study aims to determine the distribution and trends of 3 and 6-month drought periods in the Elmalı district of Antalya, located in the Mediterranean region, between 1970 and 2023. For this purpose, time series with durations of 3 and 6 months were created first. The time series was divided into four 3-month periods (P3A, P3B, P3C and P3D) and two 6-month periods (P6A and P6B). The Agricultural Standardised Precipitation Index (aSPI) and the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) were used in the study to determine the time-series agricultural drought indices. Reference evapotranspiration values used for determining the moisture deficit in the RDI method were calculated using the Penman-Monteith equation. The Mann-Kendall trend analysis test was applied to determine the trend of the 3 and 6-month index values obtained using the drought index methods. According to the results from both index methods, it was determined that The Elmalı district experienced a high number of severe agricultural droughts during 1972–1973, 1982–1985, 1988–1992, 2006–2007, 2015–2017, and 2020–2021, each for a 3-month period. For the 6-month periods, significant increases in drought severity were observed in the years following 2015. Based on these results from the Mann-Kendall trend test, statistically significant change was observed in the index values in the 3 and 6-month time series of both index methods. However, a decrease close to critical threshold value (p: 0.05) was found in the aSPI-3 times series, specifically in the P3B period of aSPI-3 and RDI-3 and P6A period of aSPI-6.