The Potential Effects of Canal Istanbul on Türkiye’s Trade with Black Sea Coastal Countries: A Gravity Model Analysis

Creative Commons License

Topuz H.

Alanya Akademik Bakış, cilt.10, sa.3, ss.739-752, 2026 (TRDizin)

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 10 Sayı: 3
  • Basım Tarihi: 2026
  • Dergi Adı: Alanya Akademik Bakış
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: TR DİZİN (ULAKBİM)
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.739-752
  • Açık Arşiv Koleksiyonu: AVESİS Açık Erişim Koleksiyonu
  • Akdeniz Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

This study examines the potential trade implications of the Canal Istanbul Project for Türkiye’s total bilateral trade with Black Sea coastal countries through a gravity model framework. Rather than assessing the project as a whole, the study focuses on a specific and measurable mechanism: whether reductions in maritime transit time may generate trade-flow sensitivity between Türkiye and its Black Sea partners. Panel data covering Türkiye’s total bilateral trade with Bulgaria, Georgia, Romania, Russia and Ukraine over the 2013–2023 period are analysed using Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) estimation. The preferred PPML specification yields a transit-time elasticity of −0.766, indicating that maritime transit time operates as a meaningful and statistically significant trade friction. A counterfactual Canal Istanbul simulation indicates that the estimated effects vary geographically; the largest effects are estimated for Bulgaria and Romania, while the smallest effect is estimated for Georgia. Unlike distance-shortening canals such as the Suez or Panama canals, Canal Istanbul’s potential trade relevance would operate primarily through the reduction of waiting-time friction rather than physical route shortening. The results suggest that time-saving logistics measures in the Turkish Straits, whether through Canal Istanbul or alternative traffic management improvements, may constitute a meaningful policy instrument for Türkiye’s Black Sea trade connectivity. The study contributes a quantitative and empirically grounded perspective to a literature that has thus far remained largely descriptive in its treatment of Canal Istanbul’s potential trade implications.