Quantitative Assessment of Urban Sprawl Dynamics During the COVID-19 Pandemic Using AI-Supported Satellite Data


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Karakuş N., Kahraman E., Yılmaz S., Selim S.

Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering Technology, cilt.13, ss.80-92, 2025 (Hakemli Dergi)

Özet

This study aims to quantitatively assess the effects of socioeconomic changes experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic on urban sprawl dynamics. The research was conducted in the Döşemealtı District of Antalya Province, located in the Mediterranean Region of Türkiye, which stands out with its semi-rural urban characteristics and is part of one of the country’s most important tourism destinations. Settlement dynamics, expansion patterns of built-up areas, and their spatiotemporal changes in the study area were analyzed for the pre- and post-pandemic periods using artificial intelligence–supported land use/land cover (LULC) data. In this context, the Built-up class filtered from the ArcGIS Living Atlas LULC dataset was compared between 2017 (pre-pandemic) and 2023 (post-pandemic), and thematic maps of built-up surfaces were produced for each reference year. These maps were analyzed using geographic information system (GIS) technologies to evaluate the magnitude, spatial direction, and temporal trends of changes in impervious surfaces.The findings indicate that the spatial restructuring tendencies triggered by the pandemic reached a remarkable scale in the Döşemealtı District, with an increase in construction clusters within rural belts and a rapid conversion of vacant lands into built-up areas. Impervious surfaces, which covered 4146,94 km2 in 2017, increased to 4412,74 km2 in 2020, reached 5426,62 km2 in 2023. Accordingly, a short-term increase of 30,9% in impervious surfaces was observed, largely attributable to the pandemic period. By providing a rapid, low-cost, and objective analytical framework, this study demonstrates strong potential for application in remote sensing–based urban planning and spatial change monitoring during crisis periods. The results are expected to serve as an important data source for regional and local authorities in defining urban growth strategies, supporting sustainable planning decisions, and evaluating spatial transformations in future disaster or crisis scenarios