Nonlinear Prediction of Solar Cycle 25

Sarp V., KILÇIK A.

340th Symposium of the International Astronomical Union on Long-term Datasets for the Understanding of Solar and Stellar Magnetic Cycles, Jaipur, Hindistan, 19 - 23 Şubat 2018, cilt.13, ss.321-322, (Tam Metin Bildiri) identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Bildiri / Tam Metin Bildiri
  • Cilt numarası: 13
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1017/s1743921318001059
  • Basıldığı Şehir: Jaipur
  • Basıldığı Ülke: Hindistan
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.321-322
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: methods: data analysis, Sun: activity, Sun: sunspots
  • Akdeniz Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

Solar activity is a chaotic process and there are various approximations to forecast its long term and short term variations. But there is no prediction method that predicts the solar activity exactly. In this study, a nonlinear prediction approach was applied to international sunspot numbers and performance of predictions was tested for the last 5 solar cycles. These predictions are in good agreement with observed values of the tested solar cycles. According to these results, end of cycle 24 is expected at February, 2020 with 7.7 smoothed monthly mean sunspot number and maximum of cyle 25 is expected at May, 2024 with 119.6 smoothed monthly mean sunspot number.