Prediction of solar cycle 25: a non-linear approach

Sarp V., KILÇIK A., Yurchyshyn V., Rozelot J. P., Ozguc A.

MONTHLY NOTICES OF THE ROYAL ASTRONOMICAL SOCIETY, cilt.481, sa.3, ss.2981-2985, 2018 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 481 Sayı: 3
  • Basım Tarihi: 2018
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1093/mnras/sty2470
  • Dergi Adı: MONTHLY NOTICES OF THE ROYAL ASTRONOMICAL SOCIETY
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.2981-2985
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: chaos, methods: data analysis, methods: numerical, Sun: activity, sunspots, CHAOS, CAUSALITY
  • Akdeniz Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

Predicting the solar activity is an important task for space weather and solar physics. There are various approaches to predict the solar activity and these predictions are used in various areas such as planning space missions, approximating the mechanism of solar dynamo, etc. In this paper, a non-linear prediction algorithm based on delay-time and phase space reconstruction is used to forecast the maximum of Solar Cycle 25. Apart from embedding dimension and delay-time which are the key parameters of such methods, we further found a new parameter (starting point) that should be taken into account to get better solar cycle predictions. This method was tested on last five solar cycles and the results are quite acceptable. We predicted that the maximum of Solar Cycle 25 will be at the year 2023.2 +/- 1.1 with a peak sunspot number of 154 +/- 12. Our results are compared with other available predictions.