Timing is everything: Segmenting OTA's cancellations behavior through the BCR model

Atabay L., ÇİZEL B., ATABAY E.

International Journal of Hospitality Management, cilt.135, 2026 (SSCI, Scopus) identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 135
  • Basım Tarihi: 2026
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.ijhm.2026.104605
  • Dergi Adı: International Journal of Hospitality Management
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, Hospitality & Tourism Complete, Hospitality & Tourism Index, Psycinfo
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Bayesian Network analysis, BCR segmentation model, Cancellation Behavior, OTA booking cancellations, Risk Perception, Signaling Theory
  • Akdeniz Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

This study examines consumer risk perception and cancellation behaviour signals in the hotel industry by analyzing OTA reservation cancellations. Customer behaviors were clustered using the BCR segmentation model, consisting of booking window (BW), cancellation window (CW), and risk window (RW) variables. Five distinct segments were identified using Mini-Batch K-Means clustering: Moderate Risk Planners (8 %), Strategic Cancellers (23 %), Impulsive Cancellers (58 %), Risk-Averse Early Planners (7 %), and Long-Term Cancellers (5 %). A key finding highlights a significant paradox within the largest segment, “Impulsive Cancellers” (58 %): this group exhibits spontaneous decision-making with short temporal windows, yet paradoxically has the highest non-refundable booking rate (21.3 %). Bayesian Network and Markov Blanket analyses revealed probabilistic dependencies between temporal parameters and other booking variables, with BW acting as a primary driver influencing subsequent cancellation behaviors. The BCR model provides hoteliers with a data-driven method for analyzing cancellation behavior, while the risk window concept offers a new analytical perspective for minimizing revenue losses and understanding customer risk tolerance.