Spatiotemporal Analyses of Urban Expansion Trajectories and Landscape-Scale Land Transformation in the Samandag Coastal Delta with Future Projections
MAS Journal of Applied Sciences, cilt.11, sa.2, ss.323-340, 2026 (Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 11 Sayı: 2
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.5281/zenodo.20471872
- Dergi Adı: MAS Journal of Applied Sciences
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Scopus, Applied Science & Technology Source, Central & Eastern European Academic Source (CEEAS)
- Sayfa Sayıları: ss.323-340
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Google Earth Engine, LULC Change, Remote Sensing, Samandağ, Urban Sprawl
- Akdeniz Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
The spatiotemporal trajectories of urban expansion and land-use transformation over a 35-year period (1990-2025) within Samandağ District (Hatay, Türkiye) have been investigated in this study. For this, Google Earth Engine (GEE) has been used to generate multi-temporal Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) maps using Landsat and Sentinel-2 satellite imagery. Supervised classification via the Random Forest algorithm achieved overall accuracy values ranging from 82.89% to 86.73%. Findings reveal a dramatic increase in urban areas at the expense of vegetation of 3,101 hectares. Landscape metrics indicate a shift from a homogeneous rural fabric to a fragmented, heterogeneous urban character in 35 years, with the Shannon’s Diversity Index (SHDI) rising from 1.16 to 1.30. While the period between 1990 and 2010 witnessed rapid urban development, a relative stagnation, thought to be linked to the devastating earthquakes of February 2023, was observed between 2020 and 2025. Future scenarios for 2035, 2045, and 2055, based on linear regression models, predict continued pressure on agricultural and coastal ecosystems. These results provide critical spatial information for sustainable development and regional landscape planning in the Samandağ region, one of the most important Mediterranean deltas. This information is particularly important for post-disaster reconstruction following devastating events such as earthquakes.