Dynamic and integrated recreational carrying capacity assessment in a multifunctional coastal protected area

Göktuğ T. H., İçemer G., Göktürk R. S., Okudan E. Ş., Yorulmaz A.

JOURNAL OF OUTDOOR RECREATION AND TOURISM, cilt.56, ss.101092, 2026 (SSCI, Scopus)

Özet

Protected coastal areas that integrate natural and cultural assets are increasingly exposed to intensive recreational pressure, generating complex interactions among visitors, ecosystems, and management systems. In such multifunctional landscapes, conventional carrying capacity approaches based on static and site-specific calculations often fail to capture overlapping uses, seasonal variability, and management constraints. This study develops and applies an integrated recreational carrying capacity framework that simultaneously incorporates physio-spatial conditions, visitor-based social perceptions, ecological sensitivity, climatic suitability, and management capacity within a compact coastal protected area. Using Phaselis Bay in the Beydağları Coastal National Park (Türkiye) as a case study, the research combines field observations, visitor surveys, ecological monitoring, and management capacity assessment within a modified carrying capacity framework. Physio-social Carrying Capacity (PSCC) is calculated using empirically derived, perception-based minimum acceptable use levels obtained through a Visual Simulation and Normative Assessment (VSNA), replacing fixed spatial standards. Real Carrying Capacity (RCC) is estimated on a seasonal basis by integrating climate-sensitive suitability weights and ecological constraints, while Effective Carrying Capacity (ECC) is derived by incorporating quantified management capacity indicators. The results reveal pronounced seasonal and activity-specific differences in carrying capacity and demonstrate that recreational pressure is shaped less by absolute visitor numbers than by the interaction of access modes, spatial interdependencies, ecological thresholds, and institutional capacity. The proposed framework advances carrying capacity from a static numerical limit toward a dynamic, decision-oriented management tool and offers a transferable approach for visitor management in compact natural–cultural coastal protected areas.