Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
Theoretical and Applied Climatology, cilt.157, sa.3, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)
Climate change and anthropogenic pressures are causing rapid degradation of wetlands, indirectly leading to the disruption of local climate balance, particularly in semi-arid regions. Considering that more than 50% of the global population lives in close proximity to surface freshwater bodies, the degradation of wetlands is expected to significantly affect the thermal resilience of urban settlements. This study presents a methodological framework that was developed to simulate the long-term spatiotemporal changes in the climate around Burdur Lake, as well as to evaluate the impact of the shrinking lake on urban areas. Using Lake Burdur as a case study, CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) projections were employed to model hydrological balance, CA-ANN (Cellular Automata–Artificial Neural Network) was applied to simulate urban growth, and BPNN (Backpropagation Neural Network) based simulation techniques were used for local land surface temperature (LST) estimation. Simulation accuracies were obtained as 96.91% for lake dynamics, 89.60% for urban expansion, and approximately 80% for LST patterns. The lake’s climatic influence was quantified by analyzing changes in cooling area, intensity, and efficiency over the period from 2000 to 2075. The results indicate that the lake cooling distance (LCD) is projected to decline from approximately 2000 m to below the model’s spatial resolution (300 m) by 2075, while cooling efficiency (LCE) decreases from 0.96 to approximately 0.02, indicating a substantial weakening of the cooling capacity. These findings demonstrate that the cooling effect of lakes under the threat of desiccation progressively weakens over time, directly reducing the climatic resilience of lakeside cities.