Research Information System
Ornithology Research, vol.32, no.4, pp.266-279, 2024 (SCI-Expanded)
Climate change during the Quaternary period significantly influenced the distribution of Western Palearctic birds, favouring cold- and dry-adapted species. Conversely, warm-related species were restricted to glacial refugia of Southern Europe and North Africa. The lanner falcon (Falco biarmicus) is a polytypic species found in Afro-tropical and Mediterranean regions, with five recognized subspecies spanning across Africa, the Middle East, and Southern Europe. Palearctic populations of this falcon are likely impacted by suboptimal conditions that significantly differ from those in their native Sub-Saharan regions. We employ the MaxEnt Species Distribution Algorithm to model both the past and current distribution of the lanner falcon in the Mediterranean Basin. During the Last Glacial Maximum, the lanner falcon found refuge in permafrost-free areas with temperate and Mediterranean climates. Our findings suggest that these stable refuges align closely with its fragmented current distribution, without territorial expansion during subsequent interglacial periods. Among the climatic and topographic predictors, the Terrain Roughness Index (TRI), the Thornthwaite Aridity Index (THI), and the Continentality Index (Ic) collectively accounted for 79% of the total variance in the potential current distribution. In particular, the F. b. feldeggii subspecies appears to be highly sensitive to any climate change. Presumably, the maintenance of these fragmented populations is sustained by key population sources and connectivity through dispersal movements.