The Balance between Wild-Caught and Farmed Mussel Production in Türkiye: Temporal Dynamics and Future Perspectives
Journal of Shellfish Research, cilt.45, sa.1, ss.43-49, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 45 Sayı: 1
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.2983/035.045.0104
- Dergi Adı: Journal of Shellfish Research
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, BIOSIS, Environment Index
- Sayfa Sayıları: ss.43-49
- Anahtar Kelimeler: aquaculture management, bivalvia, fisheries policy, mussel, time series analysis
- Akdeniz Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
ABSTRACT – Mussel production in Türkiye has undergone a marked transition from wild-caught to aquaculture over the past decade. In 2015, production was almost entirely based on wild harvest, whereas by 2024, farmed mussels accounted for 38.3% of national output, increasing from 3 to 11, 320 tons. This study analyses production dynamics between 2015 and 2024 and explores near-future trends using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and Trigonometric seasonality, Box-Cox transformation, ARMA errors, Trend, and Seasonal components time series models. Given the emerging nature of the sector and the limited length of available data, these models are applied to generate scenario-based projections rather than deterministic forecasts. Results suggest that wild-caught mussel production is projected to remain within approximately 28, 000-29, 000 tons, whereas aquaculture output may increase substantially, reaching between 18, 865 and 28, 244 tons by 2030 depending on the growth scenario (95% prediction intervals). Commercial aquaculture is currently limited to the Mediterranean mussel (Mytilus galloprovincialis), primarily concentrated in the Marmara Region. Farmed mussels achieve prices nearly six times higher than wild-caught products, providing strong economic incentives for sectoral transformation. Projections should be interpreted cautiously considering high interannual variability, climate-related risks, and data limitations and are intended to support policy and strategic planning.