Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, cilt.7, sa.4, ss.367-380, 2002 (Scopus)
This study aims to identify the relationship between the climatic variables and yields of three crops (wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), maize (Zea mays L.) and cotton (Gossypium hirsitum L.) in the Cukurova region of Turkey. In the study, time series data were used to analyse crop yields across various climate factors for the period 1975 to 1999. The climatic variables were arranged according to phonological periods of the examined crops such as planting, flowering and harvesting time. A linear perturbation model (LPM) was used for the identification of the role of climate variables. 27 climatic factors were considered as explanatory variables in the model. A stepwise selection method in the selection and introduction of independent variables was used for regression equation for wheat, maize and cotton. The results of the linear perturbation model (LPM) showed that the R2 values for wheat, maize and cotton were found 46.1%, 57.2% and 74.5%, respectively. The highest variation coefficient (CV) was found in maize production (43.4%) followed by cotton (23.14%) and wheat (15.29%). The most significant climatic factor affecting deviations in crop yields is related in temperature at planting, flowering and harvesting time. It is suggested that farmers would be better off with the applying adaptation measurements. Therefore, policy makers should focus efforts on reducing production risks providing climatic information and developing risk management institutions.