Do Oil Prices Directly Affect Stock Markets: Evidence from Istanbul Stock Exchange

Unlu U., Topcu M.

IKTISAT ISLETME VE FINANS, vol.27, no.319, pp.75-87, 2012 (SSCI) identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 27 Issue: 319
  • Publication Date: 2012
  • Doi Number: 10.3484/iif.2012.319.3438
  • Journal Indexes: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI)
  • Page Numbers: pp.75-87
  • Keywords: Oil price, Stock market, Istanbul Stock Exchange, AUTOREGRESSIVE TIME-SERIES, SHOCKS, COINTEGRATION
  • Akdeniz University Affiliated: No


The aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of oil prices on Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) using cointegration and causality analyses in two sub-samples: 1990:M1-2001:M2 and 2001:M3-2011:M12. Findings indicate that there is no long term and causal relationship in the first period while there is long term relationship and uni-directional causality running from oil prices to stock market in second period. Furthermore, in contrast to other oil importer countries, oil prices affect stock market positively in Turkey and the response of ISE index to the changes in oil prices is very expeditious.