Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
Kılçık A. (Yürütücü), Dönmez B.
TÜBİTAK Uluslararası İkili İşbirliği Projesi, 2024 - 2026
Civilization’s current progress depends on the performance and reliability of space-based and ground-based technological systems. Solar activity is the main driver of all space weather phenomena that are capable of disturbing satellite operations, communications, navigation, and power distribution networks. However not each manifestation of solar activity exhibits the same level of geo-efficiency since the overall effect is interconnected to a variety of other factors including the conditions of the interplanetary medium as well as the state of magnetosphere, ionosphere, and other atmospheric layers. So, it is important to monitor continuously the sun and space weather.
There are specific parameters of solar activity that have potential causative relations with the conditions of the space weather in the near-Earth environment measured by geomagnetic indices. During the project, these possible relations will be quantified by the CCM approach which is a nonlinear approximation. Solar activity and geomagnetic index parameters are available as time series products distinctly and will be considered as various measurements of a complex system. Identifying varying degrees of interactions, influences, and causalities among these parameters will help us to improve our current understanding of the overall system of near-Earth space. Once the joint effects are quantified on a specific geomagnetic index, a nonlinear prediction method will be applied to get estimations for the near future. It is worth noting that these estimates will be used in the groundwork and subsequent implementation of an alert system that can be established after the project.
Project management will be undertaken in five work packages (WPs). The first WP includes determining and obtaining the raw data products that will be used during the project. The outcome of WP#1 will be processing of collected datasets. The second WP consists of the application of analysis methods on datasets. The outputs of this WP will be nonlinear properties of both solar and geomagnetic activity parameters. Next WP is designed for the causality analysis between solar and geomagnetic activity parameters. The results of this WP will give us which parameter has a dominant effect on the other. The outcome of WP#3 will be the description of prediction methods of selected parameters. WP#4 is the application of nonlinear prediction in daily and longer timescale. The results of this WP#4 can be used as groundwork for an alert system that can be established after the project. Final WP#5 will be the web page that will be prepared to release the project results and data that is used. The web page will be updated continuously after the project is completed. Thus we aim to increase public awareness and trained personal need for future.